Lucky Ducky

What is luck?

Webster puts it like this:

Luck

-noun

1 a : a force that brings good fortune or adversity b : the events or circumstances that operate for or against an individual

2: favorite chance; also success.           

Notice how "uncontrollable" is nowhere in that definition. The parts of UFS dependent on luck are:

• The Coin Flip

• The Matchup/ Pairing

• Your draws (opening hand and subsequent draws)

• Your Control Checks (somewhat)

Of these points there is really only one that is completely out of the average player's control, and that is the Matchup/ Pairing, that is, the opponent/ deck assigned to oppose you at any given stage of a tournament, and even this can be prepared for with an accurate read of the metagame. Still, an unfavorable matchup is an unfavorable matchup-most of the time you just have to be the one positioned correctly.

The Coin Flip

This is probably the most controversial aspect of UFS. Going first is considered by many to be an overwhelming advantage particularly if your deck is (insert symbol) aggro. Being on the play is often equated with winning the game. I find this notion to be incredibly flawed, however. It seems many players just don't understand how to play second. Going second, your hand simply has a different use than it would if you were playing first. Some hands that are dynamite openings on the play, are a death sentence on the draw. The inverse can also be true, however, let's analyze this further.

It is said that when two aggressive decks collide, the deck playing first wins. I believe that this notion stems from the fact many players will keep their hands based on similar if not the same criteria they would use if they were on the play, and then proceed to play out that hand as if they themselves were on the play, and not going second.

To draw a parallel, let's look at Chess, one of the oldest strategy games in existence. Going first is seen as an advantage in that game as well, however, by contrast, going second is thoroughly understood. As only one piece can be moved a turn, the player going second knows that he need to make up the lost turn of development, while simultaneously keeping himself out of traps AND prevent himself from losing any further ground (by retreating). Some will say that UFS cannot be compared to Chess or Magic, because of the dynamic and explosive nature or UFS, you can essentially play your whole hand each turn if you were inclined to do so. However, I recommend that you see each complete turn in UFS as your play. Leading off with 3-4 foundations is the same as moving your first pawn, or opening with a knight, or laying a land and a one-drop in Magic, or simply dropping a land and passing. It is the play you chose to open with, when you could just as easily have attacked and played 1 foundation, or just played two foundations. Admittedly, UFS is given to faster games, but that's why we like it, right? Each turn is a very important play as a whole.

So, if you're the aggro deck, playing second against another aggro deck, it would not be wise to keep a 5 foundation hand with the aim of playing each one of those foundations. Going first, this play would seem ideal, but on the draw it is quite the opposite. If you succeed in playing those cards, congratulations, you are very well developed, but you may not survive to see the next turn. Chances are, you've delivered yourself right into your opponent's hands! He'll ready up, draw his hand and if he's lucky (and you aren't), he'll proceed to start playing around the last 1-3 cards in your hand with the aim of finishing you off, an enterprise which you facilitated with your last play.

Chess has several well know gambits; openings that are intended to illicit a set of responses from the opponent. An analogue to this would be a choreographed dance routine, or even footwork in fencing or boxing. When I move this way, you move that way, etc. UFS is no different. I open up my attack chains with Chain Throw because either my opponent is going to block it and take 3, and as a consequence be at -1 cards in hand and +1 difficulty to his next block, or he's going to take 5. If your opponent is Ultra Rare Adon and he chooses to go second, you need to assume he's going to rearrange your face on his turn and play accordingly. You need a foundation set up, but you also need to keep enough blocks if the worst case scenario (Adon has a fistful of throws) proves to be true.

If you are the aggro deck going second, you need to be prepared to defend yourself, above all else. Do not overextend, because when you do, if you don't win, you lose. It's really that simple. Chances are, when you play well, your opponent's will overextend trying to beat you, and all they really accomplish is defeating themselves when you ready up and drop death on them.

Your Matchup / Pairing

Few things in a tournament can be as unlucky as being paired against that obscure deck you definitely expected not to see, or are just terrible against. You know what I mean, Stamp Combo, Kubi Ori infinite, Starter Ken. These "random" pairings can occur for any reason: Your opponent is playing old tech (which is not the same as "bad" tech), you drew in your last round and got paired against another dreadfully slow redux deck, everyone expected discard to be dead (including you) and you run smack into a fierce discard control deck unprepared. Whatever the reason, you have very little control over your specific matchups. Just about the only thing you can do, is come prepared. You know Air Yun-Seong is popular, so you angle a portion of your deck against him. You know hybrids are everywhere, so you plan accordingly. Knowing how to read the metagame is an ever-important skill, one every tournament player should at least be attempting to master. If you are positioned correctly, there shouldn't be too many matchups that can catch you off guard. Only something completely new and original (and good, please note that original ≠ good) can completely blow you away. It's like my Saturday morning heroes always told me: knowing is half the battle.

Your Draws

This can simultaneously be the most rewarding and most frustrating aspect of UFS. Unlike many other games, UFS allows you to draw multiple cards each turn. This makes for some incredibly consistent decks, but we always have those games in which, despite drawing 35 million cards, your hand has not seen a single Yoga Mastery.

Drawing, naturally, has an element of luck in a randomized deck. Your draws, however, can be manipulated with redundancies, or adhering to the 60-card minimum. Certain characters, foundations and actions allow you to draw even more cards. STG has been very careful printing these cards, and rightfully so. Because UFS allows you to play so many cards in a turn, any card that allows you to draw 2-3 cards without any downside would be very powerful indeed. It might as well give your character +2-3 handsize! Drawing extra cards, however, increases the chances of you finding a particular card, and reduces the "luck of the draw". Due to UFS' natural drawing, however, the chances of bad draws are fairly low, and this particular point is almost a non-issue. That is, of course, until it happens to you.

Your Control Checks

At last we arrive at the big hairy monster of UFS. The heart and soul; simultaneously the greatest strength of UFS and the bane of its existence. There are those that believe that UFS is constantly at the whim of luck due to the nature of control checks. There are those that have pulled their hair out over them, and others, like me, who are going gray far too early. I quietly steam when I fail the game-clinching control check. When I do, everyone seems to feel the need to say "I told you so." Despite all that, I hold fast to this assertion: While there is a high incidence of luck involved, control checks are absolutely manageable. If control checks are at the whims of luck, then luck is at the mercy of mathematics.

Flipping a 2, or a 1 (even 3 is not desirable), is considered the worst possible thing that can happen to you during the course of a turn. It's something we have no control over, right?

Wrong.

In a 60-card deck containing 4 cards with control values of 2, the chance of "flipping a 2" at any given point in time is 7%. Draw one of these cards, and it drops to 5%. There are ways to manipulate this number. You can simply add cards to the deck. The chances of you flipping a 2 in a 70-card deck is 5.7% at any given time. Doing this, however, may reduce the consistencies of you draws, however, so use this tactic with caution.

Certain foundations and characters can even help you smooth out bad control checks. Full Power is one of my favorite cards of the new Battle Pack, and the new Akumas are all about getting that number right in the bottom right corner.

Another tactic is not to play control values lower that three. Some decks I've heard of only have 8 cards with control values lower than 5 (the rest of the attacks are clones, and such). I'm pretty sure these decks almost never have problems with control checks. Trust the math, and believe me when I say that if you have problems with control checks, so does the rest of the world. It is a dilemma each of us as UFS players must deal with in our own ways, whether it's playing Promo Taki, and never bothering to check for attacks, like my "cursed" friend Efrain (who always flips a Seichu for a Seichu), or you're like me and play Evil to Float like a Butterfly and never check lower than 4. Control checks have a way of making a level playing field by applying even pressure on everyone. Now let me ask you this: are you the guy that scoops because you failed to play the first foundation of the game? Or do you quietly steam and sweep the card into the discard pile and say "go"? How you answer will tell you a lot about yourself. It's not over ‘til it's over, remember that.

The Assets of Power

In exactly one week from when I type these words, UFS players will be converging on Orlando, FL, to fight it out and see just who is the best in the Sunshine State. As I missed worlds for budgetary reasons, I'm raring to go for this event. Sadly, my local playgroup has just about burned out, the conglomeration formerly known as Team Rocket has disbanded, and I will be the only one carrying the banner for Tampa to Orlando. Naturally, I'd like to see top spot go to a Gulf Coast player, and see Tampa put on the UFS map, but if it's going to happen, it looks like it's entirely up to me. I've done some extensive playtesting and training with a deck of my own design. It's shaped up to be pretty solid against most decks, and it puts a lot of my theories to use. Hopefully I place well, in order to prove something to myself, and in order to show the world that Vik's group isn't the only one full of mudhole stompers down south. I'll be providing a full tournament report, and hopefully bring back some pictures for all of you to enjoy. Good luck to everyone going to the AoP this weekend. See you there. Ha, get it? Luck? C'mon...

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